Designing a survey to monitor multi-scale impacts of agri-environment schemes on mobile taxa.

Agri-environment schemes (AES) are key mechanisms to deliver conservation policy, and include management to provide resources for target taxa. Mobile species may move to areas where resources are increased, without this necessarily having an effect across the wider countryside or on populations over time. Most assessments of AES efficacy have been at small spatial scales, over short timescales, and shown varying results. We developed a survey design based on orthogonal gradients of AES management at local and landscape scales, which will enable the response of several taxa to be monitored. An evidence review of management effects on butterflies, birds and pollinating insects provided data to score AES options. Predicted gradients were calculated using AES uptake, weighted by the evidence scores. Predicted AES gradients for each taxon correlated strongly, and with the average gradient across taxa, supporting the co-location of surveys across different taxa. Nine 1 × 1 km survey squares were selected in each of four regional blocks with broadly homogenous background habitat characteristics. Squares in each block covered orthogonal contrasts across the range of AES gradients at local and landscape scales. This allows the effects of AES on species at each scale, and the interaction between scales, to be tested. AES options and broad habitats were mapped in field surveys, to verify predicted gradients which were based on AES option uptake data. The verified AES gradient had a strong positive relationship with the predicted gradient. AES gradients were broadly independent of background habitat within each block, likely allowing AES effects to be distinguished from potential effects of other habitat variables. Surveys of several mobile taxa are ongoing. This design will allow mobile taxa responses to AES to be tested in the surrounding countryside, as well as on land under AES management, and potentially in terms of population change over time. The design developed here provides a novel, pseudo-experimental approach for assessing the response of mobile species to gradients of management at two spatial scales. A similar design process could be applied in other regions that require a standardized approach to monitoring the impacts of management interventions on target taxa at landscape scales, if equivalent spatial data are available.

Exploring social-ecological systems in the transition from war to peace: A scenario-based approach to forecasting the post-conflict landscape in a Colombian region.

This paper describes the relationship between the landscape and the socio-economic and political characteristics of a highly biodiverse Andean region of Colombia, which is now recovering from the socio-ecological impact of protracted armed conflict. We quantify the current spatial relationship between nature and society, and we include legacy effects from the most recent period of armed conflict and its consequences of forced displacement and land use disruption. The procedure followed provides a quantitative model where a minimum number of socio-economic and political variables explain the variation in land cover. The results represent the relationship between land use intensity and the main socio-economic and political indicators, highlighting a close interaction between landscape configuration, socio-economic structure of local populations, coercive conservation and armed conflict. A simulated post-conflict landscape shows a clear transition gradient towards agrarian expansion and intensification, also in systems where naturalness is a relevant feature. The peace process in Colombia offers opportunities for new schemes of land planning and management, including natural resource governance and policy reforms to improve welfare and resilience of local communities. The results allow to define options for future planning given the possible consequences of socio-political legacy effects yet to fully play out across Colombia.

Phosphorus availability explains patterns in a productivity indicator in temperate semi-natural vegetation.

Plant production is a key process in semi-natural ecosystems, affecting resource provision, carbon storage, and habitat suitability for species of conservation concern. There is debate over whether nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) limits productivity more widely, and whether the pattern of limitation has been affected by widespread atmospheric N pollution. In a national-scale survey, floristic composition was used to derive mean Ellenberg N score (EN) for use as an independent metric of productivity. Much of the variation in EN within extensively-managed habitats could be explained by bulk-soil properties such as total C and moisture contents, reflecting the axis from wet, organic, infertile soils to drier, mineral, fertile soils. However, this main axis of variation was also explained well by bicarbonate-extractable P stock, and P stock was included in the best 88 of 255 possible models for all habitats, or the best 55 of 255 models for extensively-managed habitats. The stock of mineralisable N was much less well able to explain variation in the productivity metric, particularly in extensively-managed habitats. This suggests that P availability is a more widespread constraint to the productivity of semi-natural ecosystems in the UK than is N availability.

Nitrogen deposition effects on plant species diversity; threshold loads from field data.

National-scale plant species richness data for Great Britain in 1998 were related to modelled contemporary N deposition (N(dep)) using a broken stick median regression, to estimate thresholds above which N(dep) definitely has had an effect. The thresholds (kg N ha⁻¹ a⁻¹) are 7.9 for acid grassland 14.9 for bogs, 23.6 for calcareous grassland, 7.8 for deciduous woodland and 8.8 for heath. The woodland and heath thresholds are not significantly greater than the lowest N(dep), which implies that species loss may occur over the whole range of contemporary N(dep). This also applies to acid grassland if it is assumed that N(dep) has substituted for previous N fixation. The thresholds for bog and calcareous grassland are both significantly above the lowest N(dep). The thresholds are lower than the mid-range empirical Critical Loads for acid grassland, deciduous woodland and heath, higher for bogs, and approximately equal for calcareous grassland.

Use of dynamic soil-vegetation models to assess impacts of nitrogen deposition on plant species composition: an overview.

Field observations and experimental data of effects of nitrogen (N) deposition on plant species diversity have been used to derive empirical critical N loads for various ecosystems. The great advantage of such an approach is the inclusion of field evidence, but there are also restrictions, such as the absence of explicit criteria regarding significant effects on the vegetation, and the impossibility to predict future impacts when N deposition changes. Model approaches can account for this. In this paper, we review the possibilities of static and dynamic multispecies models in combination with dynamic soil-vegetation models to (1) predict plant species composition as a function of atmospheric N deposition and (2) calculate critical N loads in relation to a prescribed protection level of the species composition. The similarities between the models are presented, but also several important differences, including the use of different indicators for N and acidity and the prediction of individual plant species vs. plant communities. A summary of the strengths and weaknesses of the various models, including their validation status, is given. Furthermore, examples are given of critical load calculations with the model chains and their comparison with empirical critical N loads. We show that linked biogeochemistry-biodiversity models for N have potential for applications to support European policy to reduce N input, but the definition of damage thresholds for terrestrial biodiversity represents a major challenge. There is also a clear need for further testing and validation of the models against long-term monitoring or long-term experimental data sets and against large-scale survey data. This requires a focused data collection in Europe, combing vegetation descriptions with variables affecting the species diversity, such as soil acidity, nutrient status and water availability. Finally, there is a need for adaptation and upscaling of the models beyond the regions for which dose-response relationships have been parameterized, to make them generally applicable.

Assessing stock and change in land cover and biodiversity in GB: an introduction to Countryside Survey 2000.

Countryside Survey 2000 (CS2000) is the latest in a series of surveys designed to measure and evaluate stock and change of land cover, landscape features, freshwaters, habitats and the vegetation of Great Britain. The ideas behind CS2000 developed during the 1960s and 1970s and culminated in the first survey of vegetation and land cover in 1978. One kilometer sample squares were selected at random using an environmental stratification. Subsequent surveys took place in 1984, 1990 and 1998, revisiting the original sample locations, whilst progressively expanding in scope and sample size; CS2000 included soils, breeding birds, remotely sensed imagery, freshwater biota and hydromorphology. Countryside Survey data may be interpreted using the pressure-state-response model, by selecting indicators of process and quality, and by identifying models of expected responses to different pressures. Thus, results showing losses of hedgerows between 1984 and 1990 stimulated new protection for these features. Ideally, CS2000 data should be used to stimulate experiments to distinguish between different pressures, in order to ensure that policy and management responses are both appropriate and achievable.The experience from CS2000 may prove helpful for the design and management of other large scale monitoring programmes of ecosystems. In particular, the scope of the survey, and the use to which the data are applied, have evolved through time, and yet continuity was essential for change to be detected efficiently. These objectives were reconciled by collecting the data in a disaggregated form, allowing a high degree of flexibility in both analysis and reporting.

National-scale vegetation change across Britain; an analysis of sample-based surveillance data from the Countryside Surveys of 1990 and 1998.

Patterns of vegetation across Great Britain (GB) between 1990 and 1998 were quantified based on an analysis of plant species data from a total of 9596 fixed plots. Plots were established on a stratified random basis within 501 1 km sample squares located as part of the Countryside Survey of GB. Results are primarily conveyed in terms of a classification of national land-cover into 22 mutually exclusive Broad Habitat types. Each of the fixed vegetation plots could be assigned to the Broad Habitat in which they were located in either year. Two types of analysis are reported, both based on changes in plant species composition within monitoring plots. The first examined turnover and net change between Broad Habitat types. The second quantified more subtle changes that had occurred within each Broad Habitat using a series of condition measures that summarized multivariate plant species data as a single scalar value for each plot at each time. There are major difficulties in using uncontrolled, large-scale surveillance data to unravel causal linkages and no attempt was made to quantitatively partition variation among competing causes. However, it was clear that results were broadly consistent with environmental drivers known to have operated prior to and during the survey interval. Large-scale vegetation changes could be summarized in terms of shifts along gradients of substrate fertility and disturbance. Changes implied increased nutrient availability across upland and lowland ecosystems while, in lowland landscapes, linear features and small biotope fragments saw a marked shift to species compositions associated with greater shade and less disturbance.

Changing landscapes, habitats and vegetation diversity across Great Britain.

This paper describes how Countryside Survey 2000 (CS2000) and earlier Countryside Surveys in 1990 and 1984, can be used to develop an integrated view of the changes in land cover, landscape and biodiversity that have taken place at the regional scale in Great Britain. A particular concern is to develop an understanding of how the national patterns of stock and change are distributed across Great Britain, and whether such changes are leading to more or less regional differentiation in our landscapes and biodiversity. A further concern is how the structure of landscape is changing.A description of the major Environmental Zones that make up Great Britain is given. Analysis of the regional patterns of change observed suggests that there has been considerable geographical variation in the gains and losses of the stock of the Biodiversity Action Plan Broad Habitats. Between 1984 and 1990, in the lowlands of the south and west of England and Wales, there were significant increase in the area of the Arable and Horticultural and Broadleaved Woodland Broad Habitats, and a marked loss of Improved Grassland. Over the same period, in the uplands of England and Wales, significant losses of Acid Grassland were observed, with associated gains in Improved Grassland. The Environmental Zones in Scotland were more stable in terms of the changes in stock of Broad Habitats. In addition to the analysis of net changes in stock of the Broad Habitats, the paper provides an analysis of the exchanges of land between major cover categories or each of the Environmental Zones. In contrast to the regionally concentrated changes in habitat stock, more ubiquitous and uniform changes in habitat quality were detected between 1990 and 1998, which continue trends observed for the 1980s. The quality of freshwater habitats increased. However, there were declines in the quality for some terrestrial biotopes, as indicated by the loss of species diversity from agricultural habitats, and the gains in diversity in semi-natural habitats, such as Acid Grasslands, more usually associated with vegetation types that are poor in species. An important driver of qualitative change appears to be widespread nutrient enrichment from nitrogen. However, such processes are probably superimposed upon more local factors, such as changes in the way land is managed for agriculture. The importance of understanding the various drives of change for future countryside policy is emphasized.